Scaffolded notes
Build the idea
Begin with the current state
A forecast starts by analyzing current temperature, humidity, pressure, wind, clouds, fronts, radar, satellite, and upper-air patterns. Time trends matter: falling pressure or increasing cloud thickness can be more informative than one value.
Project motion and change
Meteorologists estimate how systems will move and develop. Front symbols, pressure patterns, radar loops, and upper-level winds provide motion clues. Local terrain, coastlines, and time of day may modify broad patterns.
Communicate probability and uncertainty
A strong forecast names a time and place, predicts measurable conditions, cites evidence, and communicates confidence. Uncertainty grows when data sources disagree, the pattern changes quickly, or small location differences matter.
Stop and explain
Check your thinking
1. Why are time trends important?
Possible response: They show the direction and rate of atmospheric change.
2. What should lower forecast confidence?
Possible response: Conflicting evidence, rapidly changing patterns, sparse data, or location-sensitive conditions.
Interactive challenge
Try the science
Pressure is falling, a cold front is approaching, and radar shows a line of showers moving east. What is the best forecast?
Before you leave
Exit ticket
List four parts of a defensible forecast.